Reimagining Demand & GTN Forecasting: Highlights from Our Latest Webinar

In collaboration with Twelve Consulting Group, An Argano Company, we recently hosted a webinar titled “Pharma Forecasting Reimagined: Demand & GTN on a Common Platform.” Industry experts Mike McCarthy, Tara Rockers, and Alex Sanchez explored how leading pharma manufacturing teams are modernizing their forecasting approach using Enterprise Performance Management (EPM) platforms.

Why Traditional Forecasting Falls Short

Whether you're building the demand forecast or the GTN Channel Forecast, one theme remains consistent: too many spreadsheets, too many silos.

• Demand forecasting is often fragmented by product type, requiring different datasets (e.g., syndicated data vs. patient-level data) and forecasting tools.

• GTN forecasting faces its own maze of Excel workbooks—often separated by brand, channel, or payer—making end-to-end visibility and impact analysis nearly impossible.

As Mike put it, “It’s the headache of data hunting and gathering... trying to maintain multiple models and reconcile Excel versions.”

What Happens When You Bring Demand & GTN Together on a Common Platform?

The improvement we’re observing across manufacturers is being achieved when they move off disconnected tools and into a common, connected EPM platform. Here’s how it transforms the forecasting process:

1) Automated Data Integration

Say goodbye to hunting through data files and reports to piece together your inputs. With a centralized data hub, ERP, syndicated, and manual data feeds can all flow automatically into models—freeing up analysts to actually analyze.

2) Smarter Statistical Forecasting

Statistical models (like best-fit algorithms, moving averages, and growth curves) can run across all brands and cycles. Analysts can override algorithm selections and even tailor statistical forecasting methods to suit their product or channel needs.

3) Market Event Modeling

No more guessing how upcoming events will impact volume. The Market Event Library allows teams to input known events (like competitor launches, access changes and live shifts), define impact curves, and see how forecasts adjust—on both the demand and GTN sides.

As Alex demonstrated, market events are:

• Flexible (customizable curves, parameters, and event types)

• Reusable (carry over from one forecast cycle to the next)

• Impactful (you see pre-event vs. post-event volumes in real-time)

4) Connected Planning Across Business Functions

When demand planning and GTN are built on the same platform, GTN teams can pull in demand forecasts with a simple dropdown—no integrations required. This enables seamless scenario planning across sales, finance, access, and supply chain.

GTN-Specific Capabilities That Drive Value

The team walked through GTN forecasting capabilities that enable better accuracy and planning, including:

• Customer-level volume forecasting: Analysts can select the best-fit methodology (trend, moving average, flat, etc.) by payer and time period with flexible parameters and overrides.

• Price-accessible planning: Changes to WAC or discount terms flow instantly throughout the forecast, reflecting cross-segment impacts and the updated net revenue.

• Detailed channel discount structures: Account for bona fide vs. non-bona fide fees, price protection terms, and government pricing projections (e.g., AMP, URA, FSS, ASP).

• Customer event planning: A parallel event library enables forecasting access changes at the payer level, tied to individual customers.

• Comparative analytics and scenario planning: Easily compare versions, see variances, and drill down to the brand or customer level—all within a single model.

Real-Time What-If Analysis

During the live demo, Alex showcased how users can duplicate an entire forecast cycle in seconds, run what-if scenarios—such as a new competitor launch or contract renegotiation—and instantly view the cascading impacts on volume, pricing, and net revenue.

All analysis happens within the platform—no exports, no version control challenges—just live, connected insights that support confident, data-driven decision-making.

Final Thoughts: Unlocking Smarter Forecasting with enterprise-wide planning

Tara closed out the session by emphasizing that EPM tools, like Anaplan, don’t just improve individual forecasts—they enable enterprise-wide planning.

When you connect demand, GTN, finance, and supply chain on a single platform:

• Forecasts become faster, smarter, and more reliable

• Teams stay aligned across business functions

• Decisions are grounded in real-time data, not gut feel

As Mike summed it up: “This is usually a lightbulb moment for manufacturers. Once you’re on a common platform, you don’t need to build point-to-point integrations or hunt for data—it just flows.”

Watch the full webinar replay here to see the live demo and real-world examples.

---

About the Speakers:

Mike McCarthy

As a Partner at Pharosity, Mike brings over 30 years of consulting experience across the commercial functions of life sciences manufacturers. A recognized expert in Gross to Net and its surrounding processes, Mike has spent decades helping organizations architect effective solutions in Contracting and Pricing. His areas of focus include automation and process optimization in Demand Forecasting, Gross to Net Forecasting, Accruals Management, and both Pre-Deal and Post-Deal Analytics.

Tara Rockers

As the Life Sciences Leader at Twelve, Tara brings over a decade of consulting experience, including seven years working with Enterprise Performance Management (EPM) tools and five years focused exclusively on life sciences. She specializes in developing strategic, Connected Planning roadmaps tailored to the unique needs of pharmaceutical, biotechnology, medical technology, and medical device companies. Tara leads Twelve’s Life Sciences portfolio, driving customer success by capturing impactful client stories and spearheading initiatives that advance planning maturity across the industry.

Alex Sanchez

With over three years of hands-on experience across pharmaceutical use cases, Alex Sanchez specializes in delivering scalable, high-impact solutions—particularly in Gross to Net Forecasting and Accruals. He has led multiple end-to-end implementations, helping life sciences organizations streamline complex financial and operational processes through Connected Planning. A certified Master Anaplanner and Solution Architect, Alex brings deep platform expertise and stays ahead of evolving product capabilities to ensure clients unlock the full value of their EPM investments.

---

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

How can pharmaceutical manufacturers reduce the manual effort in Gross to Net forecasting?

Many pharma manufacturers still rely heavily on Excel workbooks to manage GTN forecasting by brand, channel, or payer—resulting in time-consuming data reconciliation and version control issues. Transitioning to a centralized EPM platform allows for automated data integration from ERP, claims, and contract systems. This eliminates manual data gathering and allows finance and access teams to focus on insights rather than formatting.

What’s the best way to connect Demand Planning and Gross to Net Forecasting?

The most effective way to align Demand and GTN is by housing both on a common EPM platform. This ensures that updates in demand (e.g., volume changes due to market events or promotional strategies) automatically flow into GTN forecasts—without needing a separate integration or offline handoff. Teams can run true end-to-end scenarios across commercial, access, and finance functions in real time.

Can I use AI or statistical forecasting models for pharmaceutical demand planning?

Yes. EPM platforms allow you to incorporate statistical methods such as best-fit algorithms, exponential smoothing, or moving averages. These methods are fully parameter driven, can be tailored by brand, channel, or product type—and easily overridden by planners when needed. Many pharma teams are starting to explore AI-assisted forecasting, especially for short-cycle brands, volatile therapeutic areas, and pressure testing assumptions.

How do pharma companies model the impact of market events on forecast accuracy?

Using a Market Event Library within an EPM platform, companies can input known or anticipated events—such as competitor launches, formulary wins/losses, or coverage changes—and apply predefined impact curves. These events adjust both volume and revenue forecasts, enabling scenario comparisons that are dynamic, repeatable, and aligned across teams.

What tools can help forecast customer-level volume and net revenue by payer?

An EPM platform with customer-level granularity allows forecasters to segment by payer, apply different statistical methodologies per account, and assess how pricing, discount terms, and access changes impact volume and revenue. This is critical for government pricing (e.g., AMP, URA, FSS, ASP) and commercial discounting strategies.

How are pharma companies improving accruals management with EPM platforms?

By aligning GTN forecasting with accruals in the same model, finance teams can project accrual rates and balances more accurately based on real-time volume and pricing inputs. This improves monthly close processes and allows better forecasting of net sales and liabilities by payer or channel.

What are the key benefits of moving off Excel and onto an Enterprise Performance Management (EPM) platform for forecasting?

Moving to an EPM platform enables:

• Real-time collaboration across sales, finance, and access

• Faster scenario planning and what-if modeling

• Reduced manual effort and error risk

• Centralized version control and auditability

• Dynamic integration of upstream demand signals and downstream GTN impacts